Jordan’s Nightmare Unfolds: Is the ‘Silent Transfer’ of Palestinians to Jordan Inevitable?
For decades, the idea that Jordan could become the ‘alternative homeland’ for Palestinians was dismissed in Amman as a far-fetched conspiracy theory—a distant nightmare. But today, under the shadow of Israel’s far-right government and the devastating war in Gaza, that nightmare is becoming a chilling reality. And this is the part most people miss: it’s not just about military invasion; it’s about a calculated, gradual ‘soft transfer’ that could force Palestinians into Jordan, reshaping the region forever.
The alarm bells in Jordan reached a deafening pitch when Israel’s cabinet approved measures to register vast areas of the occupied West Bank as ‘state land’ under its Ministry of Justice. This move, hailed by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich as a ‘settlement revolution,’ effectively bypasses the military administration that has governed the territory since 1967, treating it as sovereign Israeli soil. For Jordan, this bureaucratic annexation is the final nail in the coffin of the status quo. With Israel’s ‘Iron Wall’ operation crushing refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarem, Jordan’s leaders are no longer asking if a forced transfer is coming, but how to stop it.
But here’s where it gets controversial: Mamdouh al-Abbadi, Jordan’s former deputy prime minister, warns that the ‘alternative homeland’ is no longer a threat—it’s already in motion. ‘After the West Bank, the enemy will move to the East Bank, to Jordan,’ he told Al Jazeera. This isn’t just fear-mongering; it’s a stark assessment of Israel’s actions, which many in Jordan see as an ‘undeclared war.’
The fear in Amman isn’t just about tanks and troops; it’s about making life in the West Bank unlivable, forcing a gradual exodus toward Jordan. Sunday’s decision to transfer land registration authority to Israel’s Justice Ministry is seen as a critical step in this process. By erasing Jordanian and Ottoman land registries that have protected Palestinian property rights for a century, Israel is clearing the legal path for massive settlement expansion. Bold claim? Perhaps. But al-Abbadi points to symbolic yet dangerous shifts, like the naming of a new Israeli brigade after Gilead, a region near Amman. ‘This means the Israelis are proceeding with their strategic practices from the Nile to the Euphrates,’ he argues.
Here’s the real question: Is the 1994 Wadi Araba Treaty effectively null and void in the eyes of Israel’s current leadership? Al-Abbadi believes so, warning that Israel’s consensus has shifted permanently. ‘If we do not wake up, the strategy will be ‘either us or them,’ he says. No middle ground.
As diplomatic options dwindle, Jordan is turning to its military capabilities. The Jordan Valley, a fertile strip separating the West Bank from Jordan, is now the front line of what strategists call an ‘existential defense.’ Retired Major-General Mamoun Abu Nowar warns that if displacement pressure continues, Jordan must take drastic measures, even declaring the Jordan Valley a closed military zone. ‘This could ignite the region,’ he admits. But he also highlights Jordan’s unique strength: its tribal social fabric. ‘Every village, every governorate will be a defensive line,’ he says. ‘Israel will not succeed in this confrontation.’
But here’s the kicker: Jordan feels abandoned by its oldest ally, the United States. For decades, the stability of the Hashemite Kingdom was a cornerstone of U.S. policy. But Oraib al-Rantawi, director of the Al-Quds Center for Political Studies, argues that this ‘strategic wager’ has collapsed. ‘When put to the test, Washington will choose Israel without hesitation,’ he says. Jordan, he warns, is trapped between U.S. aid and the existential threat from Israel.
Some in Amman are calling for a radical shift in alliances. Jordan’s cold peace with the Palestinian Authority and its shunning of Hamas are seen as strategic errors. ‘Jordan shot its diplomacy in the foot,’ al-Rantawi says, contrasting it with countries like Qatar and Egypt, which maintained ties with Hamas and retained regional influence. Controversial take? Maybe. But it’s a debate Jordan can’t afford to ignore.
As Israel rewrites land deeds in the West Bank, erasing Palestinian ownership, Jordan is preparing for the worst. Compulsory military service has resumed after a 35-year hiatus, and calls for universal conscription are growing. ‘Everyone in Jordan must be able to bear arms,’ al-Abbadi urges. Even cultural mobilization is on the table: ‘Teach our children Hebrew,’ he says, ‘because he who knows the language of a people is safe from their evil.’
Final thought: As the world condemns Israel’s actions but does little to stop them, Jordan stands alone in the path of the storm. ‘If we do not wake up,’ al-Abbadi warns, ‘the strategy will be: ‘Either us or them.’ No third option.’
What do you think? Is Jordan’s fear justified, or is this an overreaction? Can the international community step in, or is Jordan truly on its own? Let’s discuss in the comments.
